ITPs’ Over-Delivery in 2009

April 22nd 2010 at 11:00am, By Dave Guerin

This post follows up from posts on wananga, university and OTEP over-delivery in 2009 over the last three days – the university post explains the context. The short version is that providers are supposed to be in the 97-103% range, if 100% is their funding allocation.

Institutes of Technology and Polytechnics (ITPs) mostly operated within the 97-103% range last year. Six were under the cap, which is surprising since some of them were claiming last year that their enrolments were booming and they would go over 103%. Actually, it’s very surprising, since most people affected by the recession had lower level qualifications and were a natural fit to upgrade at ITPs. None of the six ITPs below the cap are low enough to need to hand funding back. Nine ITPs were in the 100-103% range, with five above the cap. Only three ITPs were significantly over the cap – SIT, NMIT and Tairawhiti.

Overall, ITPs enrolled an average of 101.3% of their cap in the middle of a recession when they might be expected to enrol some extra students at marginal cost – that compares to 107.4% at OTEPS, 100.1% at wananga and 103.1% at universities. While I was wondering before whether ITPs would respect government pressure to keep below the cap, the level that most are below the cap suggests that they have restrained enrolments for their own reasons. And they do have enough reasons, with much tighter finances next year meaning they need to conserve their resources. The allocation decisions within ITPs will probably be interesting and I might have a look at shifts in subjects and levels of EFTS in the future.

ITP Over/Under Delivery
Aoraki Polytechnic 97.5%
Universal College of Learning 98.7%
Otago Polytechnic 99.0%
Waiariki Institute of Technology 99.5%
Eastern Institute of Technology 99.6%
Waikato Institute of Technology 99.7%
Whitireia Community Polytechnic 100.0%
Western Institute of Technology Taranaki 100.3%
Northland Polytechnic 100.3%
Christchurch Polytechnic Inst of Tech 100.5%
Telford Rural Polytechnic 101.1%
The Open Polytechnic of New Zealand 101.1%
Tai Poutini Polytechnic 101.6%
Manukau Institute of Technology 101.7%
Wellington Institute of Technology 102.3%
Bay of Plenty Polytechnic 103.5%
Unitec New Zealand 103.5%
Southern Institute of Technology 104.3%
Nelson Marlborough Inst of Technology 105.8%
Tairawhiti Polytechnic 106.4%
Total 101.3%

 Tomorrow we’ll cover PTEs. Over/Under Delivery percentage is derived from data supplied by the TEC.

2 Responses to ITPs’ Over-Delivery in 2009

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John MacCormick

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:34 pm

I’d like to see some discussion in posts or comments on the actual policy of applying a uniform +/-3% enrollment range to all provider types. I’ve not seen any sound explanation for why this number was picked, or why the same constraint should apply to all providers.
Universities have always had stable, predictable enrollments, seldom varying far from forecasts even with uncapped EFTS funding – as you’d expect for providers of mainly multi-year courses – its hard to get major variances from year to year.
ITPs, on the other hand offer more short-term quals, and serve more part time students fitting study around full-time work. Its much harder for ITPs to forecast and manage to tight roll targets as students change their course loads etc to fit around changing work opportunities. And its hard to see why ITPs should be expected to manage to the same low variance as Universities. ITP roll variations exceeding 10% from year to year, or compared to forecast were common in the last decade, and (with te Wananga o Aotearoa) were the real “problem” the cap/target/range was intended to “fix”.
I’m surprised ITPs managed to stick as closely to their targets as they did, and I wonder what the cost of achieving this was. The costs could include students missing out, having choices constrained etc. And they could include ITPs offering relatively low quality short-order courses primarily to make their EFTS numbers fit to a target?

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Dave Guerin

April 23rd, 2010 at 9:19 am

Hi John
I’ve been busy this week so thought I’d put up the basic data and see how people took it. There’s been a traffic spike so it’s interesting to people, but few comments have been made. I might do some more analysis next week.

You’re right about ITP volatility and how they deal with it – if they’re low towards the end of the year you can expect to see a ramp-up of basic computing courses.

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